Key To Winning A Sports Bet

Michael Loccisano/Getty ImagesIt's summertime. For Americans, that means baseball season and all the simple pleasures that the game affords - from peanuts and Cracker Jack to the seventh inning stretch and renditions of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." For many, though, the game is not the same without the opportunity to place a little (or even a big) wager on the outcome. Whether legal or not, betting W88 is ubiquitous in baseball, and  W88.com in all other sports for that matter. And of course betting is not even limited to sporting events: it has evolved into an international, multi-billion dollar industry. People now wager on the outcome of events like American Idol and the Miss American Pageant just w88 as readily as they do the World Series or March Madness. Given the prevalence of betting and the money at http://w888asia.net stake, it is worth considering how we pick sides. What is the best method for predicting a winner? One might expect that, for the average person, an accurate forecast depends on the careful analysis of specific, detailed information. For example, focusing on the nitty-gritty knowledge about competing teams (e.g., batting averages, recent player injuries, coaching staff) should allow one to predict the winner of a game more effectively than w88.com relying on global impressions (e.g., overall performance of the teams in recent years). But it doesn't. In fact, w88 recent research by Song-Oh Yoon  W88.com and colleagues at the Korea University Business School suggests that when you zero in on the details of a team or event (e.g., RBIs, unforced errors, home runs), you may weigh one of those details too heavily. For example, you might W88.com consider the number of games won by a team in a recent streak, and lose sight of the total games won this season. As a result, your judgment of the likely winner of the game is skewed, and you are less accurate in predicting the outcome of the game than someone who takes a big picture approach. In other words, it is easy to lose sight of the forest for W88.com the trees. Yoon and his research team explored the optimal process of prediction in a series of studies examining bets made on soccer matches and baseball games. w88 In their first study, they reviewed more than one billion (yes, billion) bets placed in 2008-2010 through W88.com Korea's largest sports-betting company, "Sports ToTo." They characterized the bets in one of two ways: (a) bets that involved a w88.com general  W88.com prediction (i.e., win or lose), and (b) bets that involved a specific prediction (i.e., a precise score). Critically, they wanted to know which type of bet was more likely to result in an accurate prediction of the overall winner. Despite the fact that the specific bets were arguably more difficult and involved greater effort than general bets, they led to diminished success in predicting w88 the global outcome of the game (i.e., which team won). This disadvantage was especially pronounced for games in which the favored w88 team won. These findings suggest Link vao w88 that adopting a holistic approach when predicting outcomes, even for multi-faceted events like sporting competitions, may be more effective than dwelling in the details. However, because these findings reflect performance in a natural setting, they are open to alternative interpretations. For example, different kinds of people (e.g., risk-averse versus risk-seeking) may be more prone to placing different kinds of bets (e.g., general versus specific). In addition, different opportunities for reward may influence betting behavior, thus encouraging those making specific bets to take risks on unlikely outcomes. w88.com To control for these factors, Yoon's team examined betting behavior in a controlled laboratory paradigm. In three different experiments, participants were asked to make predictions about upcoming sporting events. In each study, half of the participants were randomly selected to make general win/lose predictions, while the other half were asked to make specific score predictions. The dependent measure was the same for both groups: Could they predict the winners? The pattern of performance across the three studies was remarkably consistent: Participants who made general win/lose predictions were reliably Link vao w88 better at projecting the winners of the sporting events than those who made specific score predictions. This advantage was evident regardless of whether reward opportunities were w88 relative (i.e., only the  w88 participant with the highest overall performance received cash) or  http://www.linkvaow88.link individual (participants received cash for every correct prediction). Notably, experts did outperform novices. Link vao w88 Nonetheless, even experts were reliably better in predicting winners when making general bets than when making w88 specific bets. It seems that even in cases where greater knowledge may offer an advantage, the act of focusing on that knowledge can disrupt decision-making. Thus, while a lifelong baseball fan is Link vao w88 more likely to pick the winning team than someone who has never watched a game, for either person a quick prediction about the winner is likely to be more accurate than one that follows deep reflection. Yoon's team confirmed this http://www.w888asia.net notion by assessing the kinds of information participants were using to make  W88 their  W88.com predictions. As you might expect, those assigned to the general win/lose group reported relying on global assessments (e.g., overall impression of the teams, performance of the teams in years past) to a greater W88.com extent than those assigned to the specific score group. In addition, reliance on global information significantly predicted success for all participants. Even for those in the specific score group, use of detailed knowledge (e.g., strength of the defense, coaching talent) was not associated with better performance, while use of global information was. These data align with lessons learned from research on basic W88.com personal decisions. Whether choosing a jelly bean flavor, rating the attractiveness of a face, or selecting a poster to hang in a room, people are more satisfied with their selection and less likely w88.com to change their minds when they make their decisions quickly, without systematically analyzing their options or mulling over the reasons for their choice. The advice is thus the same whether considering complex scenarios or simple situations: W88.com Don't over think it. Today, more than ever before, we have access to extensive w88 data that we can consider when making complicated decisions like selecting a mutual fund or betting on a baseball series. While reviewing that information may prove useful in developing an accurate overall view of the options, the results from Yoon and colleagues suggest that focusing on the details during the decision process will prove detrimental. It is best to trust your instincts and make up your http://www.linkvaow88.link mind already. Are you a scientist who specializes in neuroscience, cognitive w88.com science, or psychology? And have you read a recent peer-reviewed paper that you would like to write about? Please send suggestions to Mind Matters editor Gareth Cook, a Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and regular contributor to NewYorker.com. He can be reached at garethideas AT gmail.com or Twitter @garethideas. ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S) Cindi May is a Professor of Psychology at the College of Charleston. She explores mechanisms for optimizing cognitive function in college students, older adults, and w88 individuals with intellectual disabilities. She is also the project director for a TPSID grant from the Department of Education, which promotes the inclusion of students with intellectual disabilities in postsecondary education. This story was originally published by Scientific American. Reprinted with permission. More from Scientific American: The Most Momentous Year in the History of Paleoanthropology Exotic Glass Could Help Unravel Mysteries of Mars  Enhanced Visual Attention May Be Early Predictor of Autism  Surprising Approach to  w88.com STDs Allows Prescription Drugs for Sexual Partners  MERS Outbreak in South Korea Will Taper Off, Experts Say  w88 If you cherished this write-up and you would like to receive much more facts regarding w88 kindly visit our web-site.